SEtalk: Why We Hate Being Wrong

Let's begin with a little puzzle.

我們先從一個小謎題開始吧。

I'm thinking of a rule, and 2, 4, 6 fits it.

我心裡想著一條規則，2、4、6 符合這條規則。

What's the rule? I suspect you've already got a guess.

規則是什麼？我猜你們心裡已經有答案了。

Hold on to it. We'll come back to it later.

先記住它，我們等一下再回來談。

In 1960, the psychologist Peter Wason gave volunteers this puzzle.

1960年，心理學家 Peter Wason 把這個謎題交給了一群志願者。

They could test any three numbers and hear yes or no.

他們可以隨意試三個數字，然後得到「是」或「不是」的回答。

So they tried 8, 10, 12, then 20, 22, 24. Yes, and yes!

於是他們試了 8、10、12，又試了 20、22、24。答案是「是」，還是「是」！

Hardly anyone tried a sequence that could prove them wrong.

幾乎沒有人去試一個可能證明自己錯了的數列。

The real rule? Any three numbers that go up!

真正的規則是什麼？任何三個遞增的數字都可以！

Only about one in five got it right first time.

第一次就答對的，大約只有五分之一。

In 1979, researchers at Stanford went a step further.

1979年，Stanford 的研究人員更進了一步。

They gathered strong supporters and strong opponents of the death penalty.

他們找來了堅決支持死刑和堅決反對死刑的人。

Everyone read the same two studies, one for and one against.

每個人都讀了同樣的兩項研究，一項支持，一項反對。

You'd expect mixed evidence to soften their views, wouldn't you?

你可能會以為，正反兩面的證據會讓他們的立場緩和一點，對吧？

Instead, each side found its own study far more convincing.

結果恰恰相反，雙方都覺得支持自己的那項研究有說服力得多。

And both groups left more certain than before!

而且兩組人離開時都比之前更加確信了！

Psychologists call this confirmation bias.

心理學家把這稱為「確認偏誤」。

We don't test our ideas. We defend them.

我們不會檢驗自己的想法，而是去捍衛它們。

And here's the uncomfortable part.

接下來是讓人不太舒服的部分。

Being wrong feels exactly like being right — until you find out.

犯錯的感覺和正確一模一樣——直到你發現自己錯了。

Why do we cling so tightly? Part of the answer is biology.

我們為什麼抓得這麼緊？部分答案在於生物學。

In 2016, scientists challenged people's political beliefs inside a brain scanner.

2016年，科學家在腦部掃描儀裡對受試者的政治信念提出質疑。

Areas linked to emotion and threat became noticeably more active.

與情緒和威脅相關的腦區明顯變得更活躍。

To your brain, being challenged can feel like being attacked.

對大腦來說，被質疑可能就像被攻擊一樣。

I learned this the hard way.

我是吃了苦頭才明白這一點的。

As a junior analyst, I forecast that our biggest client would grow.

當年我還是初級分析師，預測我們最大的客戶會成長。

For six weeks, I collected every number that agreed with me.

整整六週，我蒐集了所有支持我看法的數據。

A colleague warned me twice. I brushed her off.

一位同事提醒過我兩次，我都沒當一回事。

The client halved its orders, and our whole team paid for it.

那個客戶把訂單砍了一半，整個團隊都為此付出代價。

I wasn't stupid. I was just very busy being right.

我並不笨，只是太忙著當那個對的人。

So before your next big decision, ask one question:

所以，在你做下一個重大決定之前，先問自己一個問題：

What would change my mind?

什麼能讓我改變主意？

Then run the one test that could prove you wrong.

然後，去做那個可能證明你錯了的測試。

And buy coffee for the friend who always disagrees with you.

還有，請那個總是跟你唱反調的朋友喝杯咖啡。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。