SEtalk: Why We Hate Being Wrong

Let's begin with a little puzzle.

我们先从一个小谜题开始吧。

I'm thinking of a rule, and 2, 4, 6 fits it.

我心里想着一条规则，2、4、6 符合这条规则。

What's the rule? I suspect you've already got a guess.

规则是什么？我猜你们心里已经有答案了。

Hold on to it. We'll come back to it later.

先记住它，我们待会儿再回来说。

In 1960, the psychologist Peter Wason gave volunteers this puzzle.

1960年，心理学家 Peter Wason 把这个谜题交给了一批志愿者。

They could test any three numbers and hear yes or no.

他们可以随便试三个数字，然后得到“是”或“不是”的回答。

So they tried 8, 10, 12, then 20, 22, 24. Yes, and yes!

于是他们试了 8、10、12，又试了 20、22、24。答案是“是”，还是“是”！

Hardly anyone tried a sequence that could prove them wrong.

几乎没有人去试一个可能证明自己错了的数列。

The real rule? Any three numbers that go up!

真正的规则是什么？任意三个递增的数字就行！

Only about one in five got it right first time.

第一次就答对的，大约只有五分之一。

In 1979, researchers at Stanford went a step further.

1979年，Stanford 的研究人员更进了一步。

They gathered strong supporters and strong opponents of the death penalty.

他们召集了坚决支持死刑和坚决反对死刑的人。

Everyone read the same two studies, one for and one against.

每个人都读了同样的两项研究，一项支持，一项反对。

You'd expect mixed evidence to soften their views, wouldn't you?

你可能会以为，正反两面的证据会让他们的立场缓和一些，对吧？

Instead, each side found its own study far more convincing.

结果恰恰相反，双方都觉得支持自己的那项研究更有说服力得多。

And both groups left more certain than before!

而且两组人离开时都比之前更加确信了！

Psychologists call this confirmation bias.

心理学家把这叫作“确认偏误”。

We don't test our ideas. We defend them.

我们不会检验自己的想法，而是去捍卫它们。

And here's the uncomfortable part.

接下来是让人不太舒服的部分。

Being wrong feels exactly like being right — until you find out.

犯错的感觉和正确一模一样——直到你发现自己错了。

Why do we cling so tightly? Part of the answer is biology.

我们为什么抓得这么紧？部分答案在于生物学。

In 2016, scientists challenged people's political beliefs inside a brain scanner.

2016年，科学家在脑部扫描仪里对受试者的政治信念提出了质疑。

Areas linked to emotion and threat became noticeably more active.

与情绪和威胁相关的脑区明显变得更加活跃。

To your brain, being challenged can feel like being attacked.

对大脑来说，被质疑可能就像被攻击一样。

I learned this the hard way.

我是吃了苦头才明白这一点的。

As a junior analyst, I forecast that our biggest client would grow.

当年我还是初级分析师，预测我们最大的客户会持续增长。

For six weeks, I collected every number that agreed with me.

整整六周，我收集了所有支持我观点的数据。

A colleague warned me twice. I brushed her off.

一位同事提醒过我两次，我都没当回事。

The client halved its orders, and our whole team paid for it.

那位客户把订单砍了一半，整个团队都为此付出了代价。

I wasn't stupid. I was just very busy being right.

我并不笨，只是太忙着当那个对的人。

So before your next big decision, ask one question:

所以，在你做下一个重大决定之前，问自己一个问题：

What would change my mind?

什么能让我改变主意？

Then run the one test that could prove you wrong.

然后，去做那个可能证明你错了的测试。

And buy coffee for the friend who always disagrees with you.

还有，请那个总跟你唱反调的朋友喝杯咖啡。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。