Cognitive Biases

Our brains rely on mental shortcuts to make decisions quickly.

我們的大腦仰賴思考捷徑來快速做出決定。

Although these shortcuts are often useful, they can lead to systematic errors.

這些捷徑雖然往往很有用，卻也可能導致系統性的錯誤。

Confirmation bias, for instance, makes us favour information that supports what we already believe.

例如，確認偏誤會讓我們偏好那些支持自己既有信念的資訊。

We may also overestimate the likelihood of events that are vivid or recently reported.

我們也可能高估那些印象鮮明或近期被報導的事件發生的可能性。

Another common trap is the sunk cost fallacy, where we persist simply because we have already invested.

另一個常見的陷阱是沉沒成本謬誤，也就是我們僅僅因為已經投入了，就一再堅持下去。

Interestingly, intelligence offers little protection against these tendencies.

有趣的是，聰明才智幾乎無法防範這些傾向。

Being aware of biases does not eliminate them, but it can encourage more careful thinking.

意識到偏誤並不能消除它們，但可以促使我們更審慎地思考。

Organisations increasingly use structured decision-making to counteract them.

越來越多的組織採用結構化的決策方式來抵銷這些偏誤。

Ultimately, recognising our limitations is the first step towards better judgement.

說到底，認清自身的侷限是做出更好判斷的第一步。