Cognitive Biases

Our brains rely on mental shortcuts to make decisions quickly.

我们的大脑依靠思维捷径来快速做出决定。

Although these shortcuts are often useful, they can lead to systematic errors.

这些捷径虽然往往很有用，但也可能导致系统性错误。

Confirmation bias, for instance, makes us favour information that supports what we already believe.

例如，确认偏误会让我们偏向那些支持自己既有信念的信息。

We may also overestimate the likelihood of events that are vivid or recently reported.

我们还可能高估那些印象鲜明或近期被报道的事件发生的可能性。

Another common trap is the sunk cost fallacy, where we persist simply because we have already invested.

另一个常见的陷阱是沉没成本谬误，即我们仅仅因为已经投入了，就一味坚持下去。

Interestingly, intelligence offers little protection against these tendencies.

有趣的是，聪明才智几乎无法防止这些倾向。

Being aware of biases does not eliminate them, but it can encourage more careful thinking.

意识到偏误并不能消除它们，但可以促使我们更审慎地思考。

Organisations increasingly use structured decision-making to counteract them.

越来越多的组织采用结构化的决策方式来抵消这些偏误。

Ultimately, recognising our limitations is the first step towards better judgement.

归根结底，认清自身的局限是做出更好判断的第一步。